Correct Score Betting Using Scoring Patterns

Ethel Gonzales

One of the most popular “side” bets associated with fixed odds football coupons is the correct score forecast, and one of the most lucrative methods for profiting from these bets is by combining permutations of the most likely results calculated from historical statistics.

We show below an example from next weekends Premier League matches where we can exploit teams who repeatedly fail to score goals on their travels, playing away to teams who invariably underachieve in home leagues matches. By selecting goal shy teams, we have a better chance of correctly predicting the score, rather than including teams such as Chelsea or Manchester United who are quite capable of free scoring beyond the range of normal data.

Example 1 – West Ham v Hull

Hull City currently have an excellent home record – having recently held Chelsea to a draw and beaten Manchester City. Yet, in 7 of their last 10 away matches they have failed to score. In fact, they have only managed to score 7 goals in 13 away games, and are yet to record a Premiership win away from the KC Stadium this season.

The West Ham team have been remarkably consistent with their scoring this season. In 25 league games, they have scored “1” or “2” goals 16 times, with 7 “0”s and 2 “others”. Combining this information about the two teamsĀ“ scoring patterns, one can see that the likely final result is going to be either:-

West Ham 0 – 0 Hull (8/1)

West Ham 1 – 0 Hull (11/2)

West Ham 2 – 0 Hull (7/1)

The figures in brackets after the score indicate the odds generally available (not best odds).

The same principal can be applied to the game at Portsmouth v Stoke, where Stoke have scored just 5 goals away from The Potteries in twelve league games this season and Portsmouth have scored either “1” or “2” goals (even in defeat) in their last seven league games at Fratton Park since the end of October. The odds for this match are:-

Portsmouth 0 – 0 Stoke (15/2)

Portsmouth 1 – 0 Stoke (6/1)

Portsmouth 2 – 0 Stoke (9/1)

Somewhat surprisingly, the third game that falls into these criteria is Aston Villa v Burnley on Sunday. Burnley have managed one Premiership point away from Turf Moor all season, scoring just 8 goals in 13 matches. Aston Villa have played 13 home games in the league this season, in 4 of which they failed to score, in 4 they have scored just one goal and there have been 3 games at Villa Park in which they scored they scored twice. Again, we can determine that the result between these two teams is potentially in the range of:-

Aston Villa 0 – 0 Burnley (10/1)

Aston Villa 1 – 0 Burnley (11/2)

Aston Villa 2 – 0 Burnley (5/1)

Combining the three most likely results from these three games into a permed treble consists of 27 bets [(1 from 3) x (1 from 3) x (1 from 3)] and with these particular matches, if the more statistically likely results are achieved, your returns will range between 273 and 990 points per 27 points staked.

This style of betting can be applied to other events (for example set betting on tennis matches). It is worth noting that permed bets may be difficult to place online, and a call to you betting account holder, or visit to your local high street bookmaker may be required in order to place them.

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